Chiefs vs. Chargers Breakdown and Pick (plus some Friday CFB)

ChIefs vs. Chargers and some Friday CFB

Posted Record as of 9/5

NFL Sides: 1-0 +5.00

NFL MLs: 0-1 -2.00

NFL Props: 0-1 -0.25

CFB Sides: 0-0

Solid win on a big play last night with Cowboys +8. Thought I should have cashed the moneyline too and was pleased with Turpin’s usage on that prop that also didn’t cash. Overall, a 2.75 unit night is a solid night. 

This Week 1 showdown, played in Sa Paulo, Brazil, is another amazing week 1 divisional game. I can’t stand losing money betting against the Chiefs, but unfortunately that’s what the data and matchup tells me. 

1. Initial Power Rankings & Spread  for a Baseline Expectation: 

Ratings based spread versus composite power ratings (useful data I got from Sam Hoppen) suggests a 1.9 spread here, so a bit of value on the Chargers from that perspective since Chiefs are sitting at -3 juiced at -115

2. Kansas City Chiefs

• Offensive Gameplan & Effectiveness:

    ◦ They've added speed in Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown over the last few years, and Travis Kelce is reportedly "hyperfocused". Need to get both the downfield passing game going and the running game going. The offense has been anemic but for short and intermediate passing as well as Mahomes greatness. 

    ◦ Patrick Mahomes' deep passing numbers in 2024 were concerning: he ranked 31st in passing grade on passes of 15+ yards and 42nd in turnover worthy plays on such throws. The Chargers' defense, paradoxically, was excellent at defending deep passes, ranking 11th in coverage grade and 5th in yards allowed on 15+ yard passes. This creates a direct schematic clash where the Chiefs' new ambition meets a strong counter.

In 2024, they were actually 11th in EPA/Play, 22nd in rushing yards, and converted 3rd and 4th downs really well, which Mahomes usually seems to do. Even if Simmons is solid it probably won’t be right away and so they still have a middle of the road offensive line this year. 

    ◦ Running Game: The Chiefs were dead last in explosive run rate (7.3%) last year and operated primarily as a shotgun running team without committing extra bodies to the run game. 

    ◦ Receiver Depth: The Chiefs will be without Rashee Rice (suspension) and Jaylen Royals (knee) in Week 1, leaving Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster as the primary options.

• Defensive Performance & Outlook:

    ◦ Advanced Metrics (2024): The Chiefs' defense, while often lauded, performed as an average-to-slightly-above-average unit by most advanced metrics in 2024.

        ▪ EPA/Play: 0.01 (16th out of 32 teams)

        ▪ Success %: 43.57% (18th)

        ▪ EPA/Pass: 0.05 (15th)

        ▪ EPA/Rush: -0.04 (10th) – This is a strength, particularly relevant against the Chargers' desired run game.

        ▪ Sack %: 7.60% (10th) – Demonstrates a capable pass rush, bolstered by Chris Jones.

        ▪ 3rd Down Efficiency: 24th – A significant weakness.

    ◦ Personnel Concerns: While Chris Jones remains a dominant force, particularly on the interior against the run, the corner group outside of Trent McDuffy is young and not considered a strength.

• Luck & Regression Indicators:

    ◦ Overall Luck: The Chiefs had the highest overall team rankings luck in the league in 2024. This is a strong indicator for negative regression across various facets of their game. I mean–sheesh this team gets the breaks.

    ◦ Schedule Strength: They face a significantly more difficult schedule in 2025 (SOS Improvement Rank 23, moving from 20th to 27th in difficulty), further pointing to potential negative regression.

    ◦ Fumble Recovery: Their Fumble Recovery Rank was 30th (low), which could lead to positive regression in turnover fortune (recovering more fumbles).

Some good things from Bill Barnwell:

• Largest gap between their actual record last year and Pythagorean expected record of any team since 1989. The 30 teams with the largest gap declined by more than 3 wins per year. 
• They went an unprecedented 10-0 in one score games last year—always regresses.
• ………Except with Mahomes defying similar odds a few times already and teams failing to rise to the challenge late in games

3. Los Angeles Chargers: 

• Offensive Gameplan & Effectiveness:

    ◦ Obviously Harbaugh and Roman want to run the ball

    ◦ Major O-Line Weakness: This philosophy faces a massive hurdle in Week 1: Rashawn Slater, their second-highest graded tackle last year, is out for the season. Joe Alt moves to left tackle (capable), but Trey Pipkins at right tackle is a concern, especially against Chris Jones. The offensive line is "worse than it was last year" without Slater.

    ◦ Historical Run Game Struggles vs. Chiefs: The Chargers have a dismal history running against the Chiefs, posting a 50 rushing grade, 3.1 yards per carry, and only 0.5 yards before contact in their two games last year. Spagnuolo's defense, with dominant linebackers Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal, effectively "flattens out the front" against them.

    ◦ Running Backs: The new running back room includes rookie Hampton and Harris (just cleared to practice a few days ago). Hampton has good potential but I think they’ll need both in a game like this. 

    ◦ Quarterback Pressure: If the run game fails, Justin Herbert will be forced into obvious dropback situations, which is of course a "difficult assignment" against Spagnuolo's blitzes and disguises.

    ◦ Receiving Corps: Their wide receiver room is mediocre at best on paper with no real threat outside of Ladd

• Defensive Performance & Outlook:

    ◦ Advanced Metrics (2024): The Chargers' defense performed well in 2024.

        ▪ EPA/Play: -0.07 (9th)

        ▪ Success %: 41.27% (12th)

        ▪ EPA/Pass: -0.07 (9th)

        ▪ EPA/Rush: -0.07 (8th)

    ◦ Deep Pass Defense Strength: They were particularly strong at preventing explosive plays, ranking 11th in coverage grade and 5th in yards allowed on 15+ yard throws. James and Gilman are awesome and versatile, and Minter really turned this around.

• Luck & Regression Indicators:

    ◦ Schedule Strength: The Chargers face an even more dramatic increase in schedule difficulty in 2025 (SOS Improvement Rank 28, moving from 3rd easiest to 15th most difficult). This is a significant factor for negative regression.

    ◦ Team Rankings Luck: Their overall team rankings luck was 5th highest in 2024, indicating some positive variance that may regress…..but not as lucky as the Chiefs!

Neither team has a new Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, or Defensive Coordinator for 2025. However, both teams are undergoing significant strategic and personnel-driven shifts that introduce variance:

• Chiefs: Attempting to transition to a more explosive, deep-passing offense while potentially revamping their run game. This is a deliberate strategic adjustment.

• Chargers: Aiming for a run-first, clock-control identity, but their ability to execute is severely challenged by a key injury and historical matchup struggles.

5. Special Teams Impact: Neither the Chiefs nor the Chargers are identified as being among the top teams poised for a significant special teams boost under the new kickoff rules, nor do they have new Special Teams Coordinators.

6. External Factors: The game location in Sa Paulo, Brazil, is of course a neutral site. As seen in other international games, field conditions can be unpredictable and play an "enormous part", adding an element of random variance to the game. 

To wrap this up—I’d be a fool if I saw this many luck indicators that have a history of regressing and didn’t try to take advantage of it. Slater injury really hurts, but I’m finding a way to bet the Chargers here, and that is going to be first half to avoid potential late game heroics from Mahomes. Hopefully Hampton is as good as the hype around him. Oh and by the way, Super Bowl losers week 1 have an awful history ATS…

1 unit on Chargers 1h +1.5

Lean on the under on this game, but it’s a no play.

I’m also playing some college football tonight for those who care about that sort of thing.

Two small plays:

.5 units on Northern Illinois +16.5 -105

.5 units on Boise State -31.5

Nothing fancy: Maryland has some fade value after a misleading box score and high turnover ratio week 1. 

Boise has some value after that USF game. Weird one with bad turnovers as well. In that one, USF actually looked pretty dominant, but the box score ended up being very even and I’m usually interested in a 32.5 spread-to-result variance. The offense is concerning without Jeanty to bail them out, but I think they’ll get back on track.

That’s it. I’ll have some more content on the weekend games posting over the next 24 hours.